With the midterms approaching, you’re about to hear plenty of predictions about which party will be better for your money. 

But here’s the problem with investing based on politics: Your feelings about a politician can blind you to an opportunity. Or convince you to buy something for the wrong reasons.

John Pangere, our warrants expert at RiskHedge, recently ran into this firsthand.

After John wrote about Greenland in his Strategic Edge letter, a reader pushed back: “I read RiskHedge for rigorous analysis, not political pandering.”

John’s response: Covering a political event isn’t the same as endorsing it. From the start, John asked, is this a trend worth following... and can my readers make money from it? 

John identified a way to play the Greenland trend in July 2025, before it became a major investment story. The position has since produced triple-digit gains. As John put it, “the gap between what people felt and what was actually happening is where the opportunity was.”

Today, I (Chris Reilly) explore that idea with John: How to separate politics from investing, what he’s watching ahead of the midterms, and which trends could outlast the election cycle.

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Chris: John, how can you tell when a political headline creates a real investment opportunity versus just noise?

John: Political trends are tough to evaluate because bias often gets in the way of making good investment decisions.

Take Greenland. I’d followed the topic for a while and was looking at its strategic military importance, the northern shipping lanes, and its untapped resources, including oil, gas, and critical metals.

When President Trump started talking about Greenland, I combined those developments with what was happening in the critical metals market and concluded this wasn’t just noise. It had legs.

In July 2025, I recommended a way to play the trend. We’ve already taken triple-digit gains, and I think it still has room to run.

And it’s not just about one political party we’ve benefitted from. When the previous administration was pushing green energy, I saw that the infrastructure for electric vehicles was lacking. I recommended Blink Charging warrants as a way to play the buildout, and we booked a 2,805% gain.

Don’t let your opinion of a person or party determine whether you take an opportunity seriously. With Greenland, some people dismissed the trend because of who proposed it, rather than looking at the facts.

I follow the trend, not the team.

Chris: How should investors evaluate their portfolios for political risk ahead of the midterms?

John: A lot depends on what happens with Congress. The media narrative seems to be that we’re headed for a blue wave, but I’m not so sure. I live in Michigan, a swing state, and I think the result could surprise people.

Rather than trying to predict every political outcome, focus on risk management. Follow your trailing stops and size your positions properly.

I’m watching crypto, energy, and commodities, where policy shifts have already happened and could continue. I’d also look at industries facing regulatory pressure, including parts of tech. Job cuts tied to new government policies could be a warning sign, but you have to do your homework. I’m not saying all tech companies face the same risks.

Political events can also create sudden shocks. Look at oil. I believe that when the Iran conflict ends, oil prices could fall hard and fast.

Chris: Which long-term investment trends do you think are bigger than the election cycle?

John: Last week, I was in the audience for Jared Dillian’s Dirtcon conference and had a chance to hear from some of the speakers on this topic. It’s always great hearing the perspective of other investors.   

Interestingly, two trends I’m trading in Strategic Trader came up: commodities and energy. In fact, both are themes I’ve written about in my book, The New Market Regime.

First, commodities. I think we’re at the start of what I call the “Super Spike,” a potentially generational run. Investors who catch it could do extremely well, but they’ll need patience. Commodities are volatile.

The second trend is energy, particularly offshore oil and electricity. Offshore oil activity is picking up after years of neglect. We’ve already profited from it a number of times and I’m looking for more ways to play it.

Electricity is another big opportunity. AI data centers will drive a wave of demand, and we don’t have enough supply to meet what’s coming.

That brings nuclear power into the picture. Nuclear requires uranium, and we already have a significant deficit in uranium production. I expect that gap to get worse.

Regardless of which party controls Washington, we’ll still need electricity and the resources to produce it. Public sentiment toward nuclear power is also changing. It’s no longer viewed as the boogeyman it once was.

Chris: What do you think investors are most likely to get wrong between now and Election Day?

John: Inflation has become a political issue, and investors should look more closely at what’s driving it instead of reacting to the headlines.

I believe the energy supply shock is an important part of the story. If supply conditions normalize, lower energy prices could eventually feed through to a lower inflation figure. That may take time, but it’s something I’m watching.

I’m also watching the Federal Reserve. Raising interest rates into a supply shock can make the problem worse. Ben Bernanke wrote about this in a 1998 paper. 

I think investors should consider the risk of tightening monetary policy when the source of inflation is a supply problem.

Bonds are another area worth watching. Investors often treat current yields as if they’re unusually high, but the longer-term history gives a different perspective. I think bonds could offer value if the market’s view of inflation and interest rates changes.

And if yields come down, keep an eye on small-cap stocks. Lower yields could help the kinds of companies I cover in Strategic Trader.

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Chris Reilly again.

The next time a political headline gets you fired up, take a step back. Ask what it could mean for businesses, industries, and long-term trends, regardless of how you feel about the people involved.

For more of John’s market observations and investment ideas, sign up for his free weekly Strategic Edge letter here.