
SpaceX is down 20%. Time to buy?
SpaceX (SPCX) is down over 20%.
After shooting out of the gate at IPO and briefly surpassing Amazon (AMZN) in market value, the stock has slid from $225/share to $178/share.
I (Chris Reilly) have heard from a lot of readers who want to own SpaceX but don’t want to get ripped off by its sky-high valuation. So today, I’m giving you a peek into our latest RiskHedge Reserve call, where all four of our experts discussed how they’re approaching SpaceX now that the initial euphoria has quieted.
Stephen McBride: "There's a difference between a great company and a great stock."

We don’t recommend buying yet in Disruption Investor because the company isn’t profitable yet and we're not traders. But it’s perfectly reasonable to buy a little SpaceX now and add to the position over time.
I believe this is going to be a $10 trillion-plus company by 2030 (currently at $2.4 trillion). But I think you'll get an opportunity to buy it at a lower price than where it trades today at some point.
That's really based on the history of large IPOs. Usually the first price is not the lowest price you'll ever see.
The whole valuation and a lot of the future of the company rests on the idea that we're going to put data centers in space. That is going to happen. And SpaceX is the only business that can do it because it's the only one that owns the launch market.
The thing Elon Musk has done better than anyone is he's made real-world, physical, important innovation cool again.
He's trained thousands of engineers over the past 24 years. They went to the school of Elon Musk. They learned how to do hard things. They built a real business. And now they're taking those skills and tackling other really important problems.
I think SpaceX may be the most important company of my lifetime, maybe the most important company of the last century or two.
But there's a difference between a great company and a great stock. And I'm not there on the stock just yet.
Chris Wood: "This IPO means quite a bit more to me than just another stock."

I grew up in a space household. My dad was an aerospace engineer at Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC). He worked on a bunch of NASA projects, including space shuttle design and mission analysis.
He's been stoking my interest in space for as long as I can remember, buying me my first telescope when I was seven. He took me to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory when I was 10 to see the first-ever close-up images of Neptune that Voyager 2 sent back to Earth.
Would I personally buy SpaceX stock here? Probably. But I get why people are apprehensive that it’s so big already.
There are plenty of smaller space stocks that have my attention. I’ve received questions on Redwire Corp. (RDW) and Voyager Technologies (VOYG), which we doubled our money on in Disruption_X.
Redwire supplies key picks-and-shovels-type products and infrastructure that enable space missions and operations. Voyager is becoming even more of a vertically integrated one-stop-shop space solutions provider. And the kicker for Voyager is Starlab, its commercial space station project.
They're absolutely going to be part of that halo effect from more interest in space.
Justin Spittler: "If SpaceX doubles, it would mean this...”

I didn't take part in the SpaceX IPO.
My thing with IPOs is I'm primarily a swing trader. I'll day trade here and there, but I find that when trading an IPO like this—if I want to get in at a size that's meaningful—I would have to basically watch the chart the entire day. And it just takes away from my attention on other things.
So I’m watching it here and there.
But listen... If SpaceX is going to double from here over the next few months to a year, the market conditions would have to be super, super “risk on.” And if that were to happen, a lot of smaller stocks would go up a lot more.
I'm watching to see if some of these other space stocks start to catch a sympathy bid.
Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) had a huge move. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) could benefit. Velo3D (VELO) has been showing probably the most relative strength. I think a lot of these space stocks are starting to look like they're bottoming.
If we do get rotation into space stocks, I think some of these names could participate.
John Pangere: "We're still in a bull market."

Some people were calling for the SpaceX IPO to mark the top of the market.
But then we saw strong interest from investors who wanted to get their hands on the IPO price. There was a lot riding on the SpaceX IPO, and it's done pretty well so far. I would call it a success.
Wall Street was definitely incentivized to nail this one and get it right. Because if it would've been a flop, that would've rung some alarm bells and potentially closed the window for these mega IPOs.
Overall, the fact that companies want to go public signals we're still in a “risk on” environment. We're not quite at the top yet.
And remember, you have OpenAI and Anthropic coming right behind this. If there was that much interest in SpaceX, you're probably going to see quite a bit of interest in those names too.
Chris Reilly Executive Editor, RiskHedge
PS: Chris Reilly here again.
One thing I've enjoyed about our quarterly calls is getting to hear more from John Pangere outside of his premium warrants research.
I asked him about his free weekly letter, Strategic Edge. Here's how he described it:
Strategic Edge is where I cover whatever I may find interesting that's going on. It doesn't always have to be about warrants.
It might be about something else that's completely different. But usually, it'll tie into my bigger-picture, long-term thinking on what's happening and how to position your portfolio to take advantage of that.
You also get lots of boots-on-the-ground insights (I liked his recent piece on the bitcoin conference). And while warrants are his specialty, there’s a lot more in Strategic Edge I think you’ll find useful.
It hits my inbox on Thursdays, and again, it's completely free. Go here to start getting Strategic Edge.
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