Chris Reilly’s note: Today, Chris Wood tells me how big he thinks Nvidia (NVDA) can get by 2030, as well as what he’s expecting during the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Read on...
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Chris Reilly: Chris, we have to talk Nvidia.
The AI chip kingpin just beat earnings again.
Data center revenue soaring, guidance up, the whole deal...
Yet the market didn’t care. It sold off Thursday and only mustered a weak rebound Friday.
We recommended Nvidia in Disruption Investor in September 2020 when it was a $320 billion company.
Last month, it briefly became the first $5 trillion company—but, as you say in this month’s Disruption Investor issue, there’s now a new chapter to the Nvidia story most folks aren’t talking about...
Chris Wood: Right. First, some perspective. Nvidia hit the $5 trillion milestone less than three months after hitting $4 trillion.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is worth about $1 trillion today. It took super-investor Warren Buffett about 60 years to build Berkshire into a trillion-dollar company. Nvidia added that much value in months.
Reilly: Textbooks will be written about Nvidia’s compound growth, and it’s been great to be a shareholder.
Subscribers who’ve been in it since our initial recommendation—and our assertion that it’s the world’s most important company—are up between 600% and 1,300%, depending on if and when they’ve taken profits on the way up.
But let’s talk about right now. The average investor will look at the stock price and say, “Isn’t the upside capped? It’s the world’s biggest company. How much higher, realistically, can it go?”
Wood: In our latest issue, I said Nvidia can become a $10 trillion company before 2030, possibly as early as 2028. Right now, it’s sitting at around $4.3 trillion after the recent dip.
Nvidia is sitting at the center of one of the biggest megatrend of our lifetime.
Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) are all in an arms race... spending hundreds of billions of dollars to ensure they don’t fall behind on AI. And Nvidia is their #1 supplier. And in some important ways, their ONLY viable supplier.
But the market still doesn’t understand how fundamentally Nvidia is changing the industry.
Reilly: You lay it out clearly in this month’s issue. For decades, the basic unit of compute was the server. Today, Nvidia is transforming the entire server rack into a single AI engine—combining CPUs, GPUs, memory, networking, cooling, and software into one unified system.
Wood: I won’t bore readers with the details, but moving from “box-level computing” to these industrial AI systems creates a ripple effect across the entire ecosystem.
Every part of the rack.... from energy delivery and cooling to networking and memory bandwidth... must scale up. They’re the bottlenecks shaping the AI boom.
And that’s incredibly bullish for the companies providing these solutions. The ones powering, cooling, and connecting the AI engines of the future.
Reilly: Let’s pause on something here, because every transformation has a narrative people remember.
With Amazon, the story is Jeff Bezos building an empire out of a garage.
With Nvidia, that’s Jensen Huang, who once cleaned bathrooms at a Denny’s but is now running the most valuable company on Earth.
It’s the kind of “only in America” arc people remember. But it also reinforces a deeper point:
These eras build new giants.
Wood: They do. Nvidia is simply the first giant of the AI era. There will be others—some of them already public, some not yet on most people’s radar.
And here’s where I’ll give the media some slack: Nvidia is impossible not to talk about. It’s doing something no company has ever done at this speed. It’s adding the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway’s market cap in months. That deserves attention.
But investors need to know what to do now as we enter this next phase of the AI boom.
Reilly: Which brings us back to this month’s issue. The goal wasn’t to re-celebrate Nvidia. Readers already know it’s been a Hall of Fame Disruption Investor pick...
Wood: Right, and as I told members, we’re happy holding what’s left of our Nvidia position.
But there is a lot more upside in our other AI plays...
I can’t name them out of fairness to our paid-up members, but they include our networking plays, our high-bandwidth memory play, and our cooling and power play—businesses earning real revenue from AI infrastructure today.
Reilly: So what’s the takeaway for a reader who just skimmed Nvidia earnings on CNBC and thought, “That’s great… but I missed it”?
Wood: You didn’t miss it. Again, I have Nvidia hitting $10 trillion (more than double its current market cap) by 2030, possibly 2028.
It’s selling data-center racks that act like industrial AI engines. But I believe the companies that power, cool, connect, manufacture, and feed those systems are in the beginning of their own multi-year bull runs.
That’s where we’re focused.
Reilly: Thanks, Chris. And reader, if you’re interested in getting all of Chris and Stephen’s Disruption Investor AI plays, this is the perfect time. In short, we’re preparing our biggest sale in over a year on Disruption Investor.
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