Last week, I (Chris Reilly) hosted our quarterly invitation-only call for RiskHedge Reserve lifetime members.
No slides. No scripts. Just a lively private conversation with Stephen McBride, Chris Wood, and Justin Spittler talking candidly about markets and investments.
I asked them two questions:
What’s the #1 investing lesson you learned in 2025?
What’s the #1 thing you’re focused on for 2026?
In today’s special pre-holiday issue of The Jolt, you get to read their answers.
Justin Spittler
RiskHedge Live, Express Trader
My biggest investing lesson of 2025
2025 was a clear reminder that stock-picking matters, a lot.
When a profitable trend starts to develop, the most important thing you can do is identify the best stock in that trend and focus there. How do you know which stock is best? It often breaks out before the rest of the sector starts moving.
For example, solar looks primed for a run right now. I’m watching for First Solar (FSLR) or Nextpower (NXT) to surge days or weeks before the Invesco solar ETF (TAN) moves much.
This concept seems simple, but it trips a lot of investors up. They end up buying the second-, third-, or fourth-best names in a trend because they missed the initial move and don’t want to overpay.
Don’t do that. Buy leaders! I’m constantly reminding myself to exercise patience and make sure that when my subscribers and I get involved, it’s only in the highest-quality names.
What I’m watching for 2026
Artificial intelligence (AI) is still the dominant force. But what’s really interesting is how many different chapters it’s gone through already, and how many more there could be.
It started with chip stocks soaring. Then the AI power trade took off—names like GE Vernova (GEV), Vistra Corp. (VST), Constellation Energy (CEG). Uranium tied directly into the AI narrative. More recently, memory with Micron Technology (MU) and the optical names have come back into focus.
People are quick to declare “the AI bubble is over” whenever one of these subtrends pulls back. But AI hasn’t been one trade. It’s been a sequence of highly profitable trade opportunities.
Because the long-term trajectory is so strong, we’ll keep getting new ways to play it. I like solar as the next breakout candidate. It hasn’t yet caught the AI spotlight like nuclear or fuel cells did. That could change.
At the same time, small-cap stocks are finally starting to show real signs of life. There’s a lot of attention on what the Fed does next, and there’s growing speculation that Trump’s next Fed chair could be very dovish. If that plays out, small caps could surge.
So for me, it’s two things: continuing to scan for the next AI-related chapter and watching speculative areas within small caps as that part of the market starts to wake up.
Stephen McBride
Disruption_X, Disruption Investor, RiskHedge Venture
My biggest investing lesson of 2025
Disruptive megatrends last longer than you can remain interested in them.
As disruption investors, we’re always trying to get ahead of the market. We’re constantly looking for the next thing. And when a stock is up 200%, 300%, 500%, even 1,000%, the instinct is to say, “That move is done. Let’s find the next thing.”
But if you’re invested in the primary megatrend, that’s a mistake. Every decade has a dominant megatrend... a “chart of the decade”... and if you get that trend right, you’re in great shape. You grow your portfolio. You beat the market.
Clearly that megatrend continues to be AI. The more I look at it, the more convinced I am that this is going to continue for many, many years. As Justin said, the ways to make money from it are evolving… but the trend itself as is as strong as ever.
What I’m watching for 2026
I’m focused on where the next wave of AI spending goes and how it reshapes the market.
Chris Wood
Disruption_X, Disruption Investor
My biggest investing lesson of 2025
That it’s dumb to try to fight or outsmart an all-powerful trend.
Earlier in the year, we thought we were seeing signs of a near-term pullback in AI capital spending. Based on that, we sold Arista Networks (ANET) and Fabrinet (FN). We booked gains (87% and 8%, respectively) on both, but it was still the wrong call. We’d be up 130% and 110% if we’d stayed the course.
It’s a good reminder: If the long-term thesis hasn’t changed, don’t overmanage the position. We’ve since added Arista back through our Phase 2 AI ETF. But sweeping, all-powerful megatrends like AI generally punish investors who try to trade around them.
What I’m watching for 2026
I agree completely with Stephen and Justin... AI is still the dominant force. But we’re also finally getting to a point where we can start having a real conversation about quantum computing.
I’ve been fascinated by this technology for a long time. At the most fundamental level, nature itself is quantum mechanical. When you’re dealing with molecules and atoms, classical physics breaks down.
If you can simulate nature accurately at the atomic level—which is exactly what a true quantum computer can do—you unlock the ability to design drugs, materials, energy storage systems, propulsion systems… things humanity simply hasn’t been able to do before.
We’re not there yet, but the progress is real. I know this because quantum companies are finally starting to make real revenues. IonQ (IONQ) booked $40 million last quarter. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has generated around $24 million over the past 12 months.
Like every new technology, quantum has gone through a hype cycle... big spike, big crash, disillusionment. That’s normal. It doesn’t mean the technology failed. It means it wasn’t ready yet.
We’re getting closer to the point where it is ready. You’ll hear more from us on this in 2026. Maybe not recommendations right away, but definitely deeper insights.
When AI eventually gets to work alongside quantum computing, the implications will to be extraordinary.
Chris Reilly again.
I appreciate you being part of the RiskHedge family. It’s going to be an exciting 2026. Have a wonderful holiday.