The first few days of the new year set the tone.
They can tell us traders if it’s going to be a good year... or if it’s time to get defensive.
History backs this up.
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is higher in January, the market finishes the year up about 75% of the time. When January is negative, that win rate drops to around 40%.
Now, we’ve obviously just kicked off the new year. But the very start of January can tell us even more.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street: “As go the first five days, so goes the year.”
And it turns out this simple adage is surprisingly accurate.
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 is up over the first five trading days, the market has finished the year higher 85% of the time. In those years, full-year returns averaged roughly 16%.
When the first five days are down, full-year returns fall to around 3%.
That’s a massive difference. And the reason is simple: real money gets put to work at the beginning of the new year.
Institutional investors deploy fresh capital. They fund new themes.
Today is the fourth trading day of 2026. And as of right now, both the S&P 500 (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) are up about 1.5% on the year.
So, we’re off to a good start. Of course, anything can happen in the coming days.
But I’m confident that the market will finish both the week and months strong.
SPY just broke out of a base that it’s been building since late October. Everything about this setup tells me it wants to head higher.
Source: StockCharts
The QQQs also appear to be on the verge of breaking out of a multi-week wedge pattern. Tight patterns like this often resolve in explosive moves.
Source: StockCharts
In my Express Trader advisory, we’re prepared for whatever the new year throws our way.
We currently have a full portfolio of stocks. And we just bought a leading energy name to capture the move in energy stocks following recent events in Venezuela—home of the world’s largest oil reserves.
The great thing about Express Trader is that we don’t have to sit around and hope the market goes our way.
We stay nimble. We get in fast when the setup is right… and get out just as quickly when it’s time to protect profits or cut risk.
Whether 2026 turns out to be another up year or a choppy mess, we’ll be ready to capture the best opportunities—and sidestep the worst ones.
If you’re looking for a practical, fast-moving strategy in the new year, you can join us in Express Trader here.
Justin Spittler
Chief Trader, RiskHedge
