2026 is the year of the…
Robotaxi.
In 2025, I rode in over a dozen Waymos in Austin, LA, and San Francisco. If you’re a nonbeliever, go take a Waymo.
A white Jaguar Waymo pulls up with a spinning sensor on its roof that looks like a high-tech crown.
You sit down, and the screen welcomes you by name: “Good afternoon, Stephen. Heading to your hotel now… This experience may feel futuristic… We’ll do all the driving.”
One press of the “start ride” button, and you’re off.
Riding in a normal Uber (UBER) afterward feels like going back to a flip phone.
Waymo started as Google’s (GOOGL) self-driving car project in 2009. A dinky little one-person rickshaw. Now, it’s clocking 1 million rides per month in California alone:
After 4X’ing the number of robotaxis on the roads, Waymo said it’s on track to hit 1 million rides every week by the end of 2026!
- Miami… Dallas… Las Vegas… Tokyo… London…
That’s just a taste of the dozen-plus new cities Waymo is launching in in 2026.
Here in Abu Dhabi, Uber partnered with several self-driving companies to launch robotaxi rides to the public.
I took my kids in their first robotaxi ride the other day. Magic!
2026 is the year self-driving cars go global.
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Like most big tech shifts, it happened gradually… then suddenly.
Over the past year, self-driving tech shifted from "hand-coded rules" (if red light, stop) to full AI models. Just as ChatGPT learned language by reading the internet, cars are learning to drive by watching millions of hours of video.
Waymo is clearly in a pole position in the robotaxi race today, judging by deployments.
- But I think the ultimate winner will be…
Tesla (TSLA).
Waymo has clocked over 130 million fully autonomous miles so far. Impressive.
Tesla owners, with “full self-driving mode” turned on, have racked up a cumulative 7 billion miles. That’s a whole lot of data to crunch, which is used to improve accuracy.
I rode in a self-driving Tesla in LA last year. We drove from El Segundo down to Long Beach port without the driver having to take over once. It was flawless, if a little aggressive.
Again, anyone who thinks the tech isn’t ready for prime time must experience it.
A few weeks back, one Tesla owner completed the first 100% intervention-free coast-to-coast drive. He drove 2,700 miles from LA to South Carolina. For three days straight the car parked, charged, and drove itself. A Turing Test moment for driverless cars.
Until now, these features were only available for Tesla owners.
- Get ready for Tesla’s $30,000 Cybercab…
Tesla launched its “Waymo competitor” in Austin this past summer. When RiskHedge publisher Dan Steinhart and I were in town, we saw the robotaxis quietly cruising around.
Now they’re in the Bay Area, too, with roughly 100 Tesla robotaxis zipping from Sunnyvale to San Francisco.
Expect Tesla to launch robotaxis in at least half a dozen US cities this year.
Now, Tesla is preparing to sell its "Cybercab" robotaxi—with no steering wheel or pedals—for under $30,000. Elon Musk recently said Cybercab production will start in April. I’ll take two, please!
I believe 2026 is the year investors stop valuing Tesla as an “automaker” and start viewing it as an “energy and robotics” company.
- Tesla recently broke out to new all-time highs.
Congrats to Disruption Investor members who bought Tesla last year after we called it an “absolute steal.” It’s soared around 80% since:
Investors will pile into Tesla in 2026 as its tech goes from “cool demo” to real-world deployments.
I expect it to break into the world’s five most valuable companies in 2026. It currently sits at #10 (more on this chart on Monday).
- Tesla doubling is my second biggest surprise for 2026.
In this month’s Disruption Investor, I’ve laid out 10 big surprises for the year ahead.
Some of them I expect to happen. Others are long shots. But all of them have the potential to reshape markets and create new disruption opportunities.
For each event, I’ve included a Disruption Score to help you gauge both the odds and the potential market impact.
Disruption Investor members can read about my top 10 surprises for 2026 right here.
If you’re not a member yet and want full access to my 2026 outlook, you can join us at this link.
Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge