“3 up, 1 down.”
That’s the pattern bitcoin (BTC) and crypto prices have historically followed.
We call it the four-year cycle. It was a pattern so predictable, you could set your watch to it, as this table of bitcoin’s annual returns shows:
But as I’ll show you, the traditional four-year cycle is likely dead, in a good way.
The day bitcoin’s cycle broke.
What happened that day? The first bitcoin ETFs started trading in America.
Bitcoin was always a fringe asset. To buy it, you had to set up a crypto wallet, wire your money to a dodgy-looking exchange, and pray it didn’t get hacked. And it was almost impossible to own in your retirement account.
Too much work for most.
Now, you can buy bitcoin as easily as Apple (AAPL) or Tesla (TSLA).
ETFs kicked open the door to Wall Street money. And money quickly flooded in.
BlackRock’s (BLK) bitcoin ETF—the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)—became the fastest-growing ETF ever. In less than two years, $87 billion poured into it. It’s the most successful ETF launch in history, and it’s not even close.
For comparison, the largest gold ETF—the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)—has been around for over two decades and is a $100 billion fund.
I bet IBIT surpasses GLD in the next few months.
The fact that anyone can easily buy BTC and Ethereum (ETH) through an ETF fundamentally changed crypto markets forever.
The “infinite bid” from wealth managers represents the single largest tailwind in crypto’s history.
Crypto is now substantially owned by pro investors who are theoretically less prone to wild speculation. Though I’ll let you in on a secret: Many whom I know are still degenerate gamblers.
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What this means is the blow-off tops and brutal 80% crashes we’ve grown accustomed to will likely transform into steadier uptrends punctuated by more modest corrections.
The traditional four-year cycle is likely dead, in a good way. Less manic boom. More sustainable accumulation.
This transition mirrors financial market evolution. The early stock market had full-blown panics every other year, while modern markets have crises every 20–30 years.
Crypto is following the same maturation curve, just compressed into a shorter timeframe.
Until the ETFs arrived.
When tens of millions of Americans get paid every fortnight, they buy stocks through their retirement accounts and 401(k)s. This creates continuous demand for stocks, which I’d argue puts a floor under prices.
Now, the world’s largest asset managers—including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and others—are telling their clients to buy and hold BTC in their 401(k)s.
The floodgates have opened. Billions of dollars of Wall Street’s money are pouring into crypto for the first time ever.
There’s $8 trillion sitting in 401(k) plans today. If crypto captures just 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion worth of fresh capital entering the market.
You’re asking the wrong question.
The better question is: Which crypto asset will Wall Street turn its attention to next?
Bitcoin was the first “legal” crypto that institutions could touch. Everything else was too murky. The regulatory risk was too high.
But that’s changing, too.
The current US administration has made it clear. They want to “make America the crypto capital of the world” (their words).
In the past few weeks, Congress voted to pass several pro-crypto bills that will give the industry all-important regulatory clarity.
Regulation has flipped from risk to opportunity.
And now, the whole crypto space will open to Wall Street. That’s driving flows right now.
It can do so much more than bitcoin. It’s fast becoming the settlement layer for a new global financial system.
Robinhood (HOOD) is building its tokenized stock platform on Ethereum. A shortlist of companies building products on Ethereum includes: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Visa (V), Stripe, Fidelity, JPMorgan (JPM), Mastercard (MA), and Shopify (SHOP).
Wall Street is finally taking notice.
Inflows into the ETH ETFs are going parabolic.
From July 2024 to June 2025, a cumulative $4.2 billion poured into these funds. This month alone (July 2025), saw $4.4 billion flood into the ETH ETFs!
That’s a signal Wall Street is moving into crypto in a big way.
I’ll have more to say about Ethereum on Monday.
Have a great weekend, and we’ll chat then.
Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge
PS: Ethereum won’t be the only crypto Wall Street pours into. In RiskHedge Venture, we’re focused on the smaller, faster-moving plays set to benefit as institutional money comes marching in. I just released a new report covering five cryptos to buy today. Become a Venture member here for a special price.